Have a Cigar, You're Gonna Go Far

A long-standing Portsmouth tradition is the matchbook poll at Federal Cigar on Ladd Street in downtown Portsmouth. (Customers simply drop a matchbook into a bag with their preferred candidate's name on it.) About an hour ago, the Portsmouth Herald announced the results. Herald reporters Adam Leech and Deborah McDermott report that owner Leonard Seagren claims the 24-year-running poll has an "80% success rate." Presumably that is in predicting the winners only, rather than the rankings of the entire field. Here are the results:

Republicans

Ron Paul (31 percent)
John McCain (27 percent)
Rudy Giuliani (21 percent)
Mike Huckabee (10 percent)
Mitt Romney (8 percent)
Fred Thompson (2 percent)
Duncan Hunter (no votes).

Democrats

Barack Obama (46 percent)
Dennis Kucinich (17 percent)
John Edwards (17 percent)
Hillary Clinton (13 percent)
Joe Biden (4 percent)
Chris Dodd (3 percent)
Bill Richardson (1 percent).

Decidedly low-tech and wholly unscientific, this poll remains one of my favorite things about the NH Primary in general and Portsmouth in particular. Certainly, reading the tea leaves -- or cigar ashes? -- of this poll can impart insight into the mind of the voter, and can be an early indicator of surprises and upsets, (e.g., Hart, Gary in 1984.)

Debate This, Pal

Wow. Talk about the mainstream media (MSM) "not getting" social media. ABCNews "partnered" with Facebook to "jointly sponsor" tonight's Democratic and Republican presidential debates in Manchester. And yesterday they announced that Dennis Kucinich will not be invited. Gov. Bill Richardson will be debating along with the Big 3, but if you go to the little ABCNews Facebook application, you'll see Kucinich outpolling Richardson by a wide margin (7% to 3%). Kucinich has filed a complaint with the FCC and supporters are hastily rallying in protest.

Similarly, although Ron Paul will be in tonight's debate, he will not be in the Fox News debate tomorrow night. Paul is the leader in ABC's Facebook poll at 37%. Paul's supporters are protesting, online of course.

Now that we've got a date set for the New Hampshire Primary elections, the buzz around the Granite State is as much about politics as Christmas shopping lists. And with good reason. With the date set for January 8th--the earliest date ever--it's hot on the heals of the holiday season. Too close, some say. Retailers and candidates will be competing for media air time and shopper/voter mindshare over the coming weeks, at the risk of oversaturating a tight market for both dollars and votes.

Nevertheless, with the horse race in full stride, and the finish line now in sight, we New Hampshirites are engaging in one of our favorite sports: Handicapping. One way to handicap is by traditional polling--calling people up at dinner and asking them who they like. Hmmm... Not so good.

But KD Paine & Partners--a nationally renown media measurement firm based in Berlin, NH--is taking a more modern approach. They're tracking YouTube usage. Following the clicks as it were. Call it Polling 2.0 if you will. And they're getting some very interesting results. Let's just say Ron Paul's money bomb on Guy Fawkes Day wasn't all that surprising when you look at this data. Here's a link to the last batch of stats. The newest batch of stats, released today, has Ron Paul ahead by several lengths.

MEDIA ADVISORY: Katie Paine is available for comment. Please contact her directly for more info.

Further 2.o-ing politics, now tonight's GOP debate will be YouTubified, too, with candidates answering questions from YouTube videos like the Dems did a while back. Stay tuned.