Thursday, January 03, 2008


On the eve of the Iowa Caucus, KD Paine & Partners has released an update to their YouTube tracking data on the presidential hopefuls. Basically, this innovative Berlin, NH-based media measurement firm is tracking clicks on YouTube for insights into the minds of prospective voters. Katie gives a great overview on where the candidates rate on her blog. As you can see from the data, Barack Obama (pictured left, with my girlfriend Melanie) is surging. And now for my predictions:

Iowa tonight:

Republicans: Huckabee will beat Romney, with McCain a strong and surprising third.

Democrats: Obama and Edwards will finish a virtual tie, with Hillary trailing them. Biden might top the 2nd tier candidates.

New Hampshire next Tuesday:

Republicans: Again, I'm seeing a shift in support to McCain, who was left for dead in NH just a couple months ago. My sense is we New Hampshirites know Romney too well to fall for his act. Huckabee's contention that the earth is only 10,000 years old will not play here. Guiliani is simply not a Granite State kind of guy and he's seemed to mail it in here in acknowledgment of that. By process of elimination, we are left with McCain, who will win despite apparently aging 10 years in the past 4 and selling out his independent integrity by pandering shamelessly to the conservative base. Given the atrophy of support for the Republican Big 3, don't be surprised if Ron Paul taps the libertarian vein of the granite state and cracks 10%.

Democrats: Obama will win. Edwards and Hillary will be close behind 2nd and 3rd. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a solid 8-10% digit showing from a 2nd tier guy like a Richardson or a Kucinich (pictured at right, with yours truly), depending on whether the independent voters who register as Democrats for this go-'round go with pragmatic or progressive.

And yes, I do love living in New Hampshire. :-)

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